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MONALISA III (WP 1.1) Modelling and Reconstruction of the North Atlantic-Climate System Variability

last modification: Feb 2009

Abstract: The project investigates the processes of multi-decadal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere based on simulations realized in Phase I and II of NCCR Climate. These long control (with fixed forcing) and ensemble simulations (with time-varying natural and antropogenic forcing) were made, using the NCAR CCSM global climate model (version 2 and 3). Specific time windows, characterised by phases of high- and low-frequency climate variations as well as variability in other indices, describing the Northern Hemisphere climate, are simulated. The aim of the third phase is to identify underlying processes related to the hydrological cycle and to estimate the influence of external forcing parameters. A major emphasis is put on investigating memory effects, particularly those residing in the ocean, which have the potential to enhance climate predictability. Statistics of trends and extreme states of climate indices are compared with data from PALVAREX. Model results will be compared with those of WP2 (GLOBCLIM and VARCLIM) to better quantify the usefulness and limitations of low-resolution models for paleoclimate applications.

Research questions:

  1. What is the response of the hydrological cycle to changes in external forcing functions in the North Atlantic during key periods of the past 1000 years and which feedback mechanisms are operating between the atmosphere and the ocean?

  2. How do long-distance to inter-hemispheric climate teleconnections and decadal to multidecadal modes interact with the hydrological cycle?

  3. How do synoptic-scale atmospheric variability and large-scale low-frequency atmosphere-ocean modes affect extremes in the hydrological cycle?

Objectives (some examples)

  1. To develop suitable analysis tools for the hydrological cycle, using the existing simulations with the coarse resolution version of CCSM3

  2. To investigate the impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) shutdown on the hydrological cycle in the coarse resolution version based on existing simulations (inter-hemispheric connection)

  3. Characterization of atmosphere-ocean feedback mechanisms and their effects on the hydrological cycle mainly based on existing long-term simulations (1000-1350 and 1500 -2100) from NCCR Climate phase 2

  4. Quantification of changes in the hydrological cycle in response to natural forcing based on the simulations of NCCR phase 2

  5. Generatation of time-slice experiments of 100 years duration with the higher resolution CCSM3

  6. Investigation of the higher resolved time-slice experiments with respect to the atmospheric-ocean coupling and the hydrological cycle

Publications

2009:


Buehler et al., 2009
Buehler, T., C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker, "On the relation of extreme North Atlantic blocking frequencies, cold spells, and droughts in ERA-40 in winter", Geophysical Research Letters, submitted, 2008

Kleppek et al., 2009
Kleppek, S., D. Handorf, P. von der Garten, M. Rex, "Influence of regional teleconnection patterns on the stratospheric circulation in winter", Climate Dynamics, submitted, 2009

Raible et al., 2009
Raible, C. C., H. Saaroni, B. Ziv, M. Wild, "Winter synoptic-scale variability over Mediterranean basin under future climate based on the ECHAM5 GCM", Climate Dynamics, submitted, 2009
Yoshimori et al., 2009
Yoshimori, M., M. Renold, T. F. Stocker, C. C. Raible, "Simulated decadal oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a cold climate state", Climate Dynamics, in press, 2009

2008:

Kleppek et al., 2008b  
Kleppek, S., V. Muccione, C. C. Raible, D. N. Bresch, P. Koellner-Heck, T. F. Stocker, "Tropical cyclones in ERA-40 - a detection and tracking method", Geophysical Research Letters, 35/L10705, 2008
Raible et al., 2008a
Raible, C. C., P. Della-Marta, C. Schwierz, H. Wernli, R. Blender, "Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones: A comparison of detection and tracking methods and different reanalyses", Monthly Weather Review, 136/3, 880-897, 2008
Raible et al., 2008b
Raible, C. C., R. De Jong, T. F. Stocker, M. Yoshimori, "Maunder Minimum climate variability from wind and moisture-sentitive proxies and model simulations", Pages Newsletter, 16, 10-11, 2008
Spangehl et al., 2008
Spangehl, T., C. C. Raible, "Variationen der NAO auf Basis von langen Zeitreihen, Datenrekonstruktionen und Simulationen der letzten 500 Jahre", Promet, 34, 101-107, 2008
Stocker et al., 2008  
Stocker, T. F., A. Schilt, "Greenhouse-gas fingerprints", Nature, 456, 331-333, 2008
Stocker, 2008
Stocker, T. F., "Hans Oeschger (1927-1998)", in New Dictionary of Scientific Biography, 2008
Wanner et al., 2008  
Wanner, H., J. Beer, T. J. Crowley, U. Cubasch, J. Flückiger, H. Goosse, M. Grosjean, J. O. Kaplan, M. Küttel, O. Solomina, T. F. Stocker, P. Tarasov, M. Wagner, M. Widmann, "Mid- to late Holocene climate change - a review", Quaternary Science Reviews, 27/19-20, 1791-1828, 2008

2007:

Casty et al., 2007  
Casty, C., C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker, H. Wanner, J. Luterbacher, "A European pattern climatology 1766-2000", Climate Dynamics, 29/7-8, 791-805, 2007
Hutterli et al., 2007  
Hutterli, M. A., T. Crueger, H. Fischer, K. K. Andersen, C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker, M. L. Siggaard-Andersen, J. R. McConnell, R. C. Bales, J. F. Burkhart, "The influence of regional circulation patterns on wet and dry mineral dust and sea salt deposition over Greenland", Climate Dynamics, 28/6, 635-647, 2007
Meehl et al., 2007
Meehl, G. A., T. F. Stocker, W. D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A. T. Gaye, J. M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J. M. Murphy, A. Noda, S. C. B. Raper, I. G. Watterson, A. J. Weaver, Z.-C. Zhao, "Global Climate Projections", in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon and D. Qin and M. Manning and Z. Chen and M. Marquis and K. B. Averyt and M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, 747-845, 2007
Raible et al., 2007  
Raible, C. C., M. Yoshimori, T. F. Stocker, C. Casty, "Extreme midlatitude cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions", Climate Dynamics, 28/4, 409-423, 2007
Raible, 2007
Raible, C. C., "On the relation between extremes of midlatitude cyclones and the atmospheric circulation using ERA40", Geophysical Research Letters, 34/L07703, 2007
Solomon et al., 2007
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, R. B. Alley, T. Berntsen, N. L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A. Chidthaisong, J. M. Gregory, G. C. Hegerl, M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B. J. Hoskins, F. Joos, J. Jouzel, V. Kattsov, U. Lohmann, T. Matsuno, M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J. Overpeck, G. Raga, V. Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, R. Somerville, T. F. Stocker, R. J. Stouffer, P. Whetton, R. A. Wood, D. Wratt, "Technical Summary", in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , edited by S. Solomon and D. Qin and M. Manning and Z. Chen and M. Marquis and K. B. Averyt and M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, 19-91, 2007
Stocker et al., 2007a  
Stocker, T. F., A. Timmermann, M. Renold, O. Timm, "Effects of salt compensation on the climate model response in simulations of large changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation", Journal of Climate, 20, 5912-5928, 2007
Stocker, 2007d
Stocker, T. F., "Hans Oeschger (1927-1998)", in New Dictionary of Scientific Biography, 326-331, 2007
Timmermann et al., 2007  
Timmermann, A., Y. Okumura, S.-I. An, A. Clement, B. Dong, E. Guilyardi, A. Hu, J. H. Jungclaus, M. Renold, T. F. Stocker, R. J. Stouffer, R. Sutton, S.-P. Xie, J. Yin, "The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO", Journal of Climate, 20, 4899-4919, 2007
von Gunten et al., 2007
von Gunten, L., O. Heiri, C. Bigler, J. van Leeuwen, C. Casty, A. F. Lotter, M. Sturm, "Seasonal temperatures for the past ~400 years reconstructed from diatom and chironomid assemblages in a high-altitude lake (Lej da la Tscheppa, Switzerland)", Journal of Paleolimnology, 2007

2006:

Bahn et al. 2006b
Bahn, O., L. Drouet, N. Edwards, A. Haurie, S. Kypreos, T. Stocker, J.-P. Vial. Optimal economic growth under climate change threats. Climate Change, 79/1-2, , 103-119, 2006.
Beltran et al., 2006
Beltran, C., N. R. Edwards, A. B. Haurie, J.-P. Vial, D. S. Zachary, "Oracle-based optimization applied to climate model calibration", Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 11/1, 31-43, 2006
Broennimann et al. 2006
S. Broennimann, C. Casty, A. Pauling and J. Luterbacher. El Nino influence on Europe during the last Centuries. Climate Dynamics, DOI:10.1007/s00382-006-0175-z.
Durand et al., 2006  
Durand, G., J. Weiss, V. Lipenkov J. M. Barnola, G. Krinner, F. Parrenin, B. Delmonte , C. Ritz, P. Duval, R. Röthlisberger, M. Bigler, "Effect of impurities on grain growth in cold ice sheets", Journal of Geophysical Research, 111/F01015, 2006
Drouet et al. 2006
Drouet, L., N.R. Edwards, A. Haurie. Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: A convex optimization approach. Environmental Modelling and Assessment 111/F01015, 2006
Luterbacher et al. 2006
Luterbacher, J., E. Xoplaki, C. Casty, H. Wanner, A. Pauling, M. Kuettel, T. Rutishauser, S. Broennimann, E. Fischer, D. Fleitmann, JF. Gonzalez-Rouco, R. Garcia-Herrera, M. Barriendos, FS. Rodrigo, JC. Gonzalez-Hidalgo, MA. Saz, L. Gimeno, P. Ribera, M. Brunet, H. Paeth, N. Rimbu, T. Felis, J. Jacobeit, A. Duenkeloh, E. Zorita, J. Guiot, M. Turkes, MJ. Alcoforado, R. Trigo, D. Wheeler, SFB. Tett, ME. Mann, R. Touchan, DT. Shindell, S. Silenzi, P. Montagna, D. Camuffo, A. Mariotti, T. Nanni, M. Brunetti, M. Maugeri, C. Zerefos, S. De Zolt, P. Lionello, MF. Nunes, V. Rath, H. Beltrami, E. Garnier, and E. Le Roy Ladurie. Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: A review. In: The Mediterranean Climate: an overview of the main characteristics and issues. Eds. Lionello, P., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P., and Boscolo, R..Elsevier, 27-148, 2006.
Moelg et al. 2006
T. Moelg, M. Renold, M. Vuille, N.J. Cullen, T.F. Stocker and G. Kaser. Indian Ocean Zonal Mode activity in a multicentury-integration of a coupled AOGCM consistent with climate proxy data. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L18710, 2006.
Pauling et al., 2006  
Pauling, A., J. Luterbacher, C. Casty, H. Wanner, "Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation", Climate Dynamics, 26/4, 387-405, 2006
Raible et al. 2006a
Raible, C.C., C. Casty, J. Luterbacher, A. Pauling, J. Esper,D. C. Frank, U. Büntgens, A. C. Roesch, M. Wild, P. Tschuck, P.-L. Vidale, C. Schär and H. Wanner. Climate Variability - Observations, reconstructions and model simulations. Climatic Change, 79, 9-26, 2006.
Schwierz et al. 2006
Schwierz, C., C. Appenzeller, H.C. Davies, M.A. Liniger, W. Müller, T. Stocker, M. Yoshimori. Multi-decadal climate projections to seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions: An overview of the challenges. Climatic Change, 79, 31-63, 2006
Yoshimori et al. 2006b
Yoshimori, M., C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker, M. Renold. On the interpretation of low-latitude moisture-sensitive proxy records based on Maunder Minimum AOGCM simulations, Climate Dynamics,, 27, 493-513, 2006.

2005:

Annan et al. 2005
Annan, J. D., J. C. Hargreaves, N. R. Edwards, R. Marsh. Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter. Ocean Modelling, 8, 135-154, 2005.
Beltran et al. 2005
Beltran, C., N.R. Edwards, A. Haurie,J.-P. Vial, J.-P. D.S. Zachary. Oracle-based optimization applied to climate model calibration. Environmental Modelling and Assessment, 1573-2967, DOI: 10.1007/s10666-005-9024-4, 2005.
Casty et al. 2005a
Casty, C., D. Handorf, C. C. Raible, J. Luterbacher, A. Weisheimer, E. Xoplaki, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, K. Dethloff, and H. Wanner. Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modeled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/European sector 1659-1990. Climate Dynamic, 24, doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0496-8, 2005.
Casty et al. 2005b
Casty, C., D. Handorf, M. Sempf. Combined winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic/European sector 1766-2000. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L12801, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022431, 2005.
Casty et al. 2005c
Casty, C., H.  Wanner, J. Luterbacher, J. Esper, R. Boehm. Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc1216, 2005.
Drouet et al. 2005
Drouet, L., N.R. Edwards, C. Beltran, A.B. Haurie, J-P. Vial, D.S. Zachary. An oracle method to couple climate and economic dynamics. In: A. Haurie, and L. Viguier: The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics, Kluwer, 2005.
Edwards et al. 2005
Edwards, N.R., H. Greppin, A. Haurie, L. Viguier. Linking climate and economic dynamics. In: A. Haurie, L. Viguier: The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics, Kluwer, 2005. 
Edwards and Marsh 2005
Edwards, N.R., R. Marsh. Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model. Climate Dynamics, 24, 415-433, doi 10.1007/s00382-004-0508-8, 2005.
Edwards and Staquet 2005
Edwards, N.R., C. Staquet. Interaction of an inertia-gravity wave packet with a baroclinic shear flow. Dyn. Atm. Oceans., 40, 91-113, 2005.
Hutterli, M., C. C. Raible, T. F. Stocker. Reconstructing climate variability from Greenland ice sheet accumulation: An ERA40 study. Geophysical Research Letters, 32 (L23712), doi:10.1029/2005GL024745 , 2005.
Longworth et al. 2005
Longworth, H., J. Marotzke, T. F. Stocker. Ocean gyres and abrubt change in the thermohaline circulation: A conceptual analysis. Journal of Climate, 2403-2416, 2005.
Luksch et al. 2005
Luksch, U., C. C. Raible, R. Blender, K. Fraedrich. Decadal cyclone variability in the North Atlantic. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 14/6,747-753, 2005.
Pauling et al. 2005
Pauling, A., Luterbacher, J., Casty, C., and H. Wanner. 2005: 500 years of gridded high resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation. Climate Dynamics, DOI:10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8.
Raible et al. 2005
Raible C.C., T.F. Stocker, M. Yoshimori, M. Renold, U. Beyerle, C. Casty, J. Luterbacher. Northern hemispheric trends of pressure indices and atmospheric circulation patterns in observations, reconstructions, and coupled GCM simulations Journal of Climate, 18, 3968-3982, 2005.
Stocker and Raible 2005
Stocker, T. F., C. C. Raible. Water cycle shifts gear. Nature, 434, 830-833, 2005.
Yoshimori et al. 2005
Yoshimori, M., T.F. Stocker, C.C. Raible, M. Renold. Externally-forced and internal variability in ensemble climate simulations of the Maunder Minimum. Journal of Climate, 4253-4270, 2005.

2004:

Bahn et al., 2004
Bahn, O., N. Edwards, R. Knutti, T. F. Stocker, "Climate policy preventing an Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapse", Les Cahiers du GERAD, G-2004-72, 2004
Edwards and Richards 2004
Edwards, N. R., and K. J. Richards. Nonlinear double-diffusive intrusions at the equator. Journal of Marine Research, 62, 233-259, 2004.
Hargreaves et al. 2004
Hargreaves, J. C., J. D. Annan, N. R. Edwards, R. Marsh. Climate forecasting using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Climate Dynamics, 23,  745 - 760 2004.
Marsh et al. 2004
Marsh, R., A. Yool, T. M. Lenton, M. Y. Gulamali, N. R. Edwards, J. G.Shepherd, M. Krznaric, S. Newhouse, S.J. Cox. Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model. Climate Dynamics, 23, 761 - 777, 2004.
Rahmstorf and Stocker 2004
Rahmstorf, S., and T. F. Stocker. Thermohaline circulation: past changes and future surprises. In: W. Steffen et al. (eds.), Global Change and the Earth System, IGBP Series, Springer, 240-241, 2004.
Raible et al. 2004b
Raible, C. C., U. Luksch, and K. Fraedrich. Precipitation and northern hemisphere regimes. Atmospheric Science Letter, 5, 43-55, DOI: 10.1016/j.atmoscilet.2003.12.001, 2004.
Raible and Blender 2004
Raible, C. C., and R. Blender. Northern Hemisphere midlatitude cyclone variability in GCM-simulations in different ocean representations. Climat Dynamics, 22, 239-248, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-003-0380-y, 2004.
Renold et al. 2004
Renold, M., U. Beyerle, C. C. Raible, R. Knutti, T. F. Stocker, and T. Craig. Climate modeling with a Linux cluster. EOS, 85/31, 290, 2004.
Stocker 2004
Stocker, T. F. Models change their tune. Nature, 490, 737-738, 2004.

2001-2003:

Blender et al. 2003
Blender, R., U. Luksch, K. Fraedrich, and C. C. Raible, Predictability study of the observed and simulated European climate using linear regression, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 2299-2314, 2003.
Fraedrich et al. 2003
Fraedrich, K., C. C. Raible, and F. Sielmann, Analog ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region, Wea. Forecasting, 18, 3-11, 2003.
Raible et al. 2001
Raible, C. C., U. Luksch, K. Fraedrich, and R. Voss. North Atlantic decadal regimes in a coupled GCM simulation, Climate Dynamics, 18, 321-330, 2001.
Schmittner et al. 2002
Schmittner, A., M. Yoshimori and A. J. Weaver. Instability of Glacial Climate in a Model of the Ocean-Atmosphere-Cryosphere System. Science, 295, 1489-1493, 2002.
Stocker 2003
Stocker, T. F. South dials north. Nature, 424, 496-499, 2003.
Stocker and Johnsen 2003
Stocker, T. F., and S. J. Johnsen. A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw. Paleoceanography, 18, 1087, doi: 10.1029/2003PA000920, 2003.
Yoshimori et al. 2002
Yoshimori, M., M. C. Reader, A. J. Weaver and N. A. McFarlane. On the causes of glacial inception at 116 kaBP. Clim. Dyn., 18, 383-402, 2002.