Analog ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region

Analog ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region
Fraedrich K, Raible CC, F Sielmann
Wea. Forecasting submitted February 2002

Abstract:
Tropical cyclones tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecasting model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric, which minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. Compared with the Climatology-Persistence (CLIPER) reference model, the adapted analog forecasts achieve great circle errors which improve the reference model by 15 to 20%. Averaged of spread bins, the ensemble mean forecast errors appear to grow almost linearly with the ensemble spread.

KeyWords Plus:
Self-adapting analog scheme, Hurricane forecasts, Ensemble spread

Addresses:
Fraedrich K, F Sielmann Univ Hamburg, Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
Raible C.C., Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.

Reprints:
Raible CC, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland, raible@climate.unibe.ch