Self-adapting analog ensemble predictions of tropical cyclone tracks
Sievers O, Fraedrich K, Raible CC
WEATHER AND FORECASTING
15 (5): 623-629 OCT 2000


Abstract:
An analog model is used to predict the tropical cyclone tracks in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins. The model is self-adapting in its search of ensembles of optimal historic analogs by creating a norm that minimizes the forecast error depending on the model parameters and the kind of prediction. Comparison with the Climatology Persistence (CLIPER) reference model shows different results in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins using the best track data as an independent verification dataset. In the Atlantic, the self-adapting analog model achieves a great circle error of same order as the reference but improves the forecasts by 15%-20% in the east Pacific. In another trial, based on simulated operational data, the performance of both models measured by absolute errors deteriorates compared to the best track data forecasts. However, the self-adapting analog scheme, which is less sensitive to noise, shows positive skill against CLIPER for all lead times in both basins.

KeyWords Plus:
Hurricane, prediction, analog scheme

Addresses:
Sievers O, Fraedrich K, Raible CC, Univ Hamburg, Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

Reprints:
Raible CC, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland, raible@climate.unibe.ch