Narrowing the uncertainty for deep-ocean injection efficiency
Orr, J. C., O. Aumont, A. Yool, G.-K. Plattner, F. Joos,
E. Maier-Reimer, M.-F. Weirig, R. Schlitzer, K. Caldeira,
M. E. Wickett, R. J. Matear, B. Mignone, and J. L. Sarmiento. In
Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, Proceedings of the Seventh
International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies,
in press, Elsevier Science Ltd., Oxford, UK, 2005.
James C. Orr and Olivier Aumont, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et
de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS and IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Andrew Yool, Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC), Southampton, England, UK
Gian-Kasper Plattner and Fortunat Joos, Climate and Environmental
Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern (PIUB), Bern,
Switzerland
Ernst Maier-Reimer, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie (MPIM),
Hamburg, Germany
Marie-France Weirig and Reiner Schlitzer, Alfred Wegener Institute for
Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, Germany
Ken Caldeira and Michael Wickett Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, California, USA
Richard Matear, Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO), Hobart, Australia
Brian Mignone and Jorge L. Sarmiento, AOS Program, Princeton University,
Princeton NJ, USA
Only ocean models can predict how efficient the ocean is in
sequestering CO2 by direct
injection. Data is not available to directly evaluate model results in
this regard, due to the century time scales required for the deep
ocean waters to mix and be brought back to the surface. Ten ocean
general circulation models (OGCM) have been compared within the
framework of an international project to obtain site-specific
efficiencies and corresponding uncertainties. Here we show that
across the range of models there is a correlation between global
injection efficiency and global metrics for CFC-11, natural 14C and
bomb 14C. These correlations provide support for using these global
tracer metrics to help narrow the uncertainty range for the 3000-m
injection efficiency. After rejecting the models that do not meet
these global tracer criteria, the range in efficiencies becomes four
times narrower, dropping from 71±22% to 70±6% in year 2500.
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