Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics

Matsumoto, K., J. L. Sarmiento, R. M. Key, O. Aumont, J. L. Bullister, K. Caldeira, J.-M. Campin, S. C. Doney, H. Drange, J.-C. Dutay, M. Follows, Y. Gao, A. Gnanadesikan, N. Gruber, A. Ishida, F. Joos, K. Lindsay, E. Maier-Reimer, J. C. Marshall, R. J. Matear, P. Monfray, A. Mouchet, R. Najjar, G.-K. Plattner, R. Schlitzer, R. Slater, P. S. Swathi, I. J. Totterdell, M.-F. Weirig, Y. Yamanaka, A. Yool, J. C. Orr, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07303, doi:10.1029/2003GL018970, 2004.

Katsumi Matsumoto, Geological Survey of Japan, Agency of Industrial Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan

Jorge L. Sarmiento, Robert M. Key, and Rick Slater, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Olivier Aumont, Jean-Claude Dutay, Patrick Monfray, and James C. Orr, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

John L. Bullister, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, USA

Ken Caldeira, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA

Jean-Michel Campin and Anne Mouchet, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium

Scott C. Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA

Helge Drange and Yongqi Gao, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway

Mick Follows and John C. Marshall, Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Anand Gnanadesikan, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Nicolas Gruber and Gian-Kasper Plattner, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA

Akio Ishida and Yasuhiro Yamanaka, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan

Fortunat Joos, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Keith Lindsay, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Ernst Maier-Reimer, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany

Richard J. Matear, CSIRO Division of Marine Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Ray Najjar, Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA

Reiner Schlitzer and Marie-France Weirig, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

P. S. Swathi, CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore, India

Ian J. Totterdell and Andrea Yool, Southampton Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK


New radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon-11 data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are used to assess a suite of 19 ocean carbon cycle models. We use the distributions and inventories of these tracers as quantitative metrics of model skill and find that only about a quarter of the suite is consistent with the new data-based metrics. This should serve as a warning bell to the larger community that not all is well with current generation of ocean carbon cycle models. At the same time, this highlights the danger in simply using the available models to represent the state-of-the-art modeling without considering the credibility of each model.


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