Evaluating global ocean carbon models: the importance of realistic physics

Doney, S. C., K. Lindsay, K. Caldeira, J.-M. Campin, H. Drange, J.-C. Dutay, M. Follows, Y. Gao, A. Gnanadesikan, N. Gruber, A. Ishida, F. Joos, G. Madec, E. Maier-Reimer, J. C. Marshall, R. J. Matear, P. Monfray, A. Mouchet, R. Najjar, J. C. Orr, G.-K. Plattner, J. Sarmiento, R. Schlitzer, R. Slater, I. J. Todderdell, M.-F. Weirig, Y. Yamanaka, and A. Yool, Evaluating global ocean carbon models: the importance of realistic physics. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18, GB3017, doi:10.1029/2003GB002150, 2004.

Scott C. Doney, Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA

Keith Lindsay, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Ken Caldeira, Climate System Modeling Group, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA

Jean-Michel Campin1 and Anne Mouchet, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium
1Now at Earth Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Department, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Helge Drange and Yongqi Gao, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway

Jean-Claude Dutay and James C. Orr, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Mick Follows and John C. Marshall, Earth Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Department, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Anand Gnanadesikan, Jorge Sarmiento, and Rick Slater, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Nicolas Gruber, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA

Akio Ishida and Yasuhiro Yamanaka, Institute for Gobal Change Research, Yokohama, Japan

Fortunat Joos and Gian-Kasper Plattner2, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
2Now at Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA

Gilles Madec, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie Paris, Paris, France

Ernst Maier-Reimer, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany

Richard J. Matear, Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization, Hobart, Australia

Patrick Monfray, Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales, Toulouse, France

Ray Najjar, Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA

Reiner Schlitzer and Marie-France Weirig, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

Ian J. Totterdell and Andrea Yool, George Deacon Division and Department of Oceanography, Southampton Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, England


A suite of standard ocean hydrographic and circulation metrics are applied to the equilibrium physical solutions from 13 global carbon models participating in phase 2 of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). Model-data comparisons are presented for sea surface temperature and salinity, seasonal mixed layer depth, meridional heat and freshwater transport, 3-D hydrographic fields, and meridional overturning. Considerable variation exists among the OCMIP-2 simulations, with some of the solutions falling noticeably outside available observational constraints. For some cases, model-model and model-data differences can be related to variations in surface forcing, subgrid-scale parameterizations, and model architecture. These errors in the physical metrics point to significant problems in the underlying model representations of ocean transport and dynamics, problems that directly affect the OCMIP predicted ocean tracer and carbon cycle variables (e.g., air-sea CO2 flux, chlorofluorocarbon and anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and export production). A substantial fraction of the large model-model ranges in OCMIP-2 biogeochemical fields (±25-40%) represents the propagation of known errors in model physics. Therefore the model-model spread likely overstates the uncertainty in our current understanding of the ocean carbon system, particularly for transport-dominated fields such as the historical uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A full error assessment, however, would need to account for additional sources of uncertainty such as more complex biological-chemical-physical interactions, biases arising from poorly resolved or neglected physical processes, and climate change.


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